The US drone strikes in Pakistan are not some new found notion, brought into practice under the current government, but thanks to Musharraf, have been a practical strategy since 2004, though the intensity of the attacks has increased exponentially since 2008.
US PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP: THE NEW TURN/S AND THE POSSIBLE SCENARIO
by Bilal Ahmad Khan
Note for WoP readers: What a fellow blogger says in his detailed essay [am going to put that up right now] though to a larger extent what he says is the most probable scenario that might hold in the Af-Pak scene in the near future, I do not subscribe to his views on Pakistan army conquering the Takht-e-Delhi. We are no more in the 300 years old Mughal empire but right in new millennium. The conditions, the priorities and the realities of this 21st century are far different than they were 300 years ago.
Then the very thesis that Pakistan should occupy Delhi does not carry any sense. We are neither a power that has the means to think so grandiose nor we can afford to think on such perilous course. Even if we come under attack whether of India or America’s, we should only strive to defend our motherland.
I don’t think Indians are that stupid to launch a full fledged attack on Pakistan. The geography of the subcontinent as well as the demographic spread in India does not justify such venture. If India did it in 1971, the reason lay within our own house which was in a terrible mess those days [unfortunately even now situation is not much better either]. Had we settled our differences with the East Pakistanis in those days, I don’t think invasion of East Pakistan by Indian forces would ever have occurred. During my student days I have had close contacts with the East Pakistanis [With many of whom I had real friendship terms]. They were more patriotic Pakistanis than even we in the west. But once our military Juntas continuously denied them their due rights in the federation of Pakistan, all East Pakistanis including the devout Pakistan minded ones turned into vocal and vociferous Bangladeshis.
So the fact remains, if we in Pakistan have our house in order, India would never dare to do such folly as attacking Pakistan. Political gimmicks and mass appealing gambits like issuing strong anti Pakistani statements do appease the voters to caste their opinions in favour of this or that party but to say that they would do so under any circumstance, I do not think so. But it doesn’t mean that this is not impossible. Everything is possible and we should keep in mind when it’s a matter of survival, one has to fight one’s war by oneself.
Second is the point raised by my friend Peter Chamberlin. Peter is of the opinion that Pakistani army would betray its people. I do admit many of our top brass [as are so many of our politicians] are a commodity with their own price tags, but by and large our army comprises of professional, dedicated and patriotic soldiers led by commands who are honed in the true mill of competence and dedication.
I say so because I know so many from our armed forces who feel as much worried about Pakistan as we do in our civil life.
I do not think Pakistan or India should ever come to a war, BUT God forbid if it so happens, Insha Allah our forces would do what the nation expects them to do. [Nayyar]
[Note by Peter Chamberlin: The following article offers the most probable scenario of about to unfold events that I have come across (by writers other than me). In addition to the references given in the article, the following two articles point to the same conclusion–Pakistan’s intransigence and Obama’s demands have brought the issue to a point of decision (SEE: U.S. charges Pakistanis in 2008 Mumbai attack plot ; US lawmakers tell Obama, dump Pakistan and go with India), NATO and India are about to attempt the eviction of China from Pakistan. I, however, don’t share the writer’s faith and enthusiasm that the Pakistani Army will come through in the end, to defend the Pakistani people from their treacherous alleged allies. But I sincerely hope that he is correct.
Long live Pakistan!]
In the name of Allah, the Beneficent, the Merciful
Assalamu-alaikum (Peace be unto you)
I hope you have been keeping well. It is certainly very nice to be back and writing quickly. I intend to keep this ‘not-so-short’ and ‘not-so-sweet’ (As if there is ever the other variety on this blog).
ESTABLISHING THE PRESENT SET UP
My focus today is on the apparently rising tensions between Pakistan and United States. This is a key juncture in the progression of events that will define this period in history. There are some interesting facts that need to be taken into account in this aspect.
The key element in the rising tension has been the drone strikes.
The drone strikes are not some new found notion, brought into practice under the current government, but thanks to Musharraf, have been a practical strategy since 2004, though the intensity of the attacks has increased exponentially since 2008.
One should note that General Kiyani took over as Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan Army in late 2007. Consequently, 2008 stands out to be a noteworthy year. The general elections took place in 2008 and the present setup was established in the same year. (Please note that this writer is of the view that there is no such thing as a ‘fair’ election, neither in the US nor in Pakistan, hence the word ‘established’).
It seems that the plan that was undertaken painstakingly by appointing Musharraf was now being taken to the next level i.e. from 2008 onwards. Hence, to bring the public opinion to square one, new faces and a new regime was placed. Eventually Musharraf was phased out and Zardari was placed in the presidency.
But coming back to the drones, they have continued unabated and with increased frequency since 2008 until January 23, 2011, ‘Raymond Davis’ was captured on January 27, 2011, the next attack came on February 21, 2011, and have resumed ever since. (‘Raymond Davis’ was released on March 16, 2011)
Surprisingly, while it has been maintained that ‘Davis’ was released in exchange for halting drone strikes as well as restricting the CIA setup in Pakistan, on March 9, 2011, while the ‘Davis’ ‘crisis’ was in full swing, ‘General Officer Commanding of the 7th Division, Major General Ghayur Mehmood, called a media briefing at Miranshah a major town of Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal region, on 9 March 2011. He defended CIA’s drone attacks inside Pakistan, saying they killed over 900 militants ‘and very few civilians.’’(http://www.ahmedquraishi.com/2011/04/21/cia-drones-claims-of-maj-gen-ghayur-mehmood-and-their-authenticity/).
GENERAL GHAYUR DESCRIBES “DRONES KILL MORE MILITANTS AND FEW CIVILIANS”
Just to add General still retains his position as Maj Gen Ghayur Mahmood TBt, FF — GOC 7th Infantry Division, Peshawar. (One of the three divisions that conducted Operation Rah-e-Nijat in 2009-2010 and the earlier Operation Zalzala in 2008 in South Waziristan. Currently based in Miranshah, North Waziristan) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_serving_generals_of_the_Pakistan_Army
Military officers do not act like politicians (though some certainly behave like them). They are always to restrict themselves by the guidelines set by the top commanders. Reviewing the above facts, one is forced to question the seriousness of the military top brass’s reservations regarding these attacks. (I am certainly not criticizing the institution or singling out the military, the political leadership has always been the lackey of the anti Pakistan forces)
Additionally, it is also interesting to note that General Kiyani was given an unprecedented 3-year extension by a political government on July 22, 2010. And interestingly, do you remember who just happened to be in town that day, US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.
It is also interesting to note that Lt. General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, DG ISI, is also on extension.
The idea of the above brainstorming was to review the conduct of the military regarding the drone attacks which seems to be the bone of contention between the US and Pakistan.
Apart from that, there are some other interesting facts that need to be looked at. The COAS announced the other day that Army was pulling out from Sui. Perhaps he was signaling a reduction in the military’s role in the province. This coming at a time when it is an open secret that the CIA, Mossad, RAW as well as Iran and certain Gulf states are busy stoking separatist movements in the province. From the face of it, hardly seems like a very prudent step.
Let us leave the military matters for a while and concentrate on the geopolitical situation. As I said 2008 onwards is a very important and noteworthy period, which is ongoing,
As the new setup comes in, the new US AfPak policy is unveiled in March 2009
(Some state that it was already in play in 2008) which marks Pakistan and Afghanistan as a single theater of operations. In June 2009, General Stanley McChrystal is assigned command of US and ISAF forces in Afghanistan. General Stanley McChrystal was also the commander of JSOC (Joined Special Operations Command) for 5 years. JSOC is a special branch of US armed forces which is also assigned the responsibility to undertake nuclear weapons extraction from Pakistan. Incidentally, the bill for provincial status of Gilgit-Baltistan is passed through the Parliament in ONE day, in 2009.
In 2010, additional 30,000 troops are sent to Afghanistan. (The joke was that US withdrawal was to start from June 2011, one may ask why the 30,000 troops then? To have a grand camp out?). It was suspected that these troops were under JSOC command and not under the ISAF flag, in short these troops were for Pakistan. The same year NWFP was named Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, granting the wish of separatist elements in NWFP.
STEADY DECLINE IN US-PAK RELATIONS
Start of 2011 brings us to ‘Raymond Davis’ and now apparently the ties between US and Pakistan are steadily declining.
Throughout this period there has been a steady rise in provincialism advocated by separatist elements emboldened by the Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber PK ‘initiatives’ by the current ‘government’ and the establishment. Slogans and echoes of ‘Azad Balochistan’, ‘Hazara Province’, ‘Saraiki Sooba’, ‘Sindhu Desh’, and ‘Jinnahpur’ are steadily becoming louder.
Balochistan and Karachi in particular are resembling more and more like the ‘Wild West’, lawless lands where might is the only right. The terrorist/separatist elements in these regions under direct support of foreign powers and anti Pakistan forces are operating to bring the situation from bad to worse under the garb of racist and sectarian violence. Moreover, these terrorists / separatists are well entrenched in the political circles directly or indirectly hence, they enjoy political immunity. Reports are consistently emerging that there is heavy CIA/RAW presence in Gilgit-Baltistan to stoke an insurgency there, worse than Swat.
Worse because it would result in the disconnection of the road link between Pakistan and China. Furthermore, I recall reading that there is heavy US troop presence in Kunar and Nuristan provinces of Afghanistan, which are coincidentally adjacent to the Northern Areas and Gilgit-Baltistan region. The US is maintaining this presence despite taking heavy losses from the Afghan Mujahideen in these provinces.
Federal authority is being silently delegated to provinces such as Reko Diq (via the Supreme Court), Thar Coal power project (via the Federal Government), HEC (via the Federal Government) to cite a few examples.
Under the direct instruction of the IMF and the World Bank, price hike and inflation has been unleashed like a beast to prey upon the masses creating fertile ground for anarchy and chaos.
The performance of the Judiciary has been a testament to the implementation of the Enemy’s plan for Pakistan. Just one fact is enough to unmask its ugly face. In the past one year 16,000 innocent people have been killed in terrorist attacks, yet not a single conviction or a death sentence has been awarded. Not a one since 2001 actually.
WHAT ARE THESE BLACKWATER / XE /CIA OPERATIVES DOING IN PAKISTAN?
The ‘Raymond Davis’ affair was the perfect moment to unmask the true standing of the government, its allied parties, the judiciary, the opposition, and the military leaderships. Based on that one incident alone, it can perhaps be concluded that all of them are in Uncle Sam’s back pocket.
My question is when all of these pillars of the state could not interrogate much less convict and hang a proven spy and killer, how in the name of heaven can we expect them to get the drone attacks stopped or the CIA setup dismantled?
Suddenly, the members of Parliament are demanding the resolution against the drone attacks. My my, where have they been since 2008?
The ISI Chief standing up to CIA counterpart Leone Panetta? Was he in a coma since his appointment when even a layman like me knew what the Americans were doing? Why don’t some rogue terrorists start hitting the US contractors in Pakistan? So many terrorist activities are taking place, can’t the ISI hire some gunslingers and let them loose on these Blackwater/Xe/CIA operatives? 14 Americans were slaughtered in Somalia and these cowards packed up and left. That is the extent of their bravery. Was the top brass completely unaware of this? And has seen the light only this January? Maybe the extent of our generals’ bravery is even worse. (I am excluding the majority, patriotic, Muslim soldiers of the Pakistan Army, I have fierce pride and great hopes for this great institution which will lead Pakistan to its promised destiny, Insha Allah).
This ‘breaking down’ of the relationship is so ridiculous, it’s laughable. Why? Because when men like Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh start criticizing the US, you know something is up. ‘US hasn’t delivered under Kerry-Lugar: Shaikh, Wednesday, April 20, 2011’ (http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=5420&Cat=13&dt=4/20/2011).
Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh is Pakistan’s Finance Minister and one of THE World Bank/IMF’s men in Pakistan. Hand picked by anti Pakistan forces to lead the country to economic ruin. His criticism of the US is bad drama at the most.
My personal evaluation on the matter can be better understood if you read US Vice President, Joe Biden’s latest statement in which ‘Biden argued that Washington had to decide whether to spend resources “focusing on Iran, Egypt, North Korea, Afghanistan and Pakistan”, or give Libya more attention’
It seems that the decision has already been made. The Yankees are coming to Pakistan. Those 30,000 JSOC soldiers should just be getting battle ready having arrived in 2010. They are probably holed up in Kunar and Nuristan as well.
From what I have gathered and once again I am also stating this on the basis of spiritual knowledge sources, I believe that Gilgit-Baltistan is about to up in flames and a regional war might be in the offing. Reports of Chinese troop presence in the area certainly consolidate this forecast (and lends some encouragement that my faith in the Pakistan Army is not unfounded). In the midst of this conflict or insurgency, Pakistan should expect the NATO forces to cross the Durand Line into Pakistan (‘to pursue terrorists’), they will probably make it as far as Attock where Pakistani forces can mount a defense using the Indus river as a natural obstacle.
If Pakistan offers stiff resistance, 30,000 or 300,000, the Yanks will not cross. Either the bullet will get them or the river.
Of course, India has been primed for exactly this moment. India has conducted military exercises on our eastern border in 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2011 (No doubt under American and Israeli oversight).
The latest one is called “Vijayee Bhava” (Be Victorious). These exercises aim to achieve ‘Cold Start’ readiness, meaning a quick, rapid strike against Pakistan,
ideally in the south Punjab region to cut the country into two halves. (In 2002, in response Pakistan army actually mobilized and achieved battle readiness before the Indians who had actually planned the exercise). Additionally, 2011 features a ‘NBC (nuclear, chemical, biological) overhang’. Meaning, how to maneuver in the event of utilization of such weapons.
So, as the Crusaders move in, we can expect all out war on the eastern front, the result of which will be that we may initially lose ground on the East. That is why I am of the opinion that conflict with India will be two-phase, in the first one we should expect difficulties especially on the Lahore front. The second phase will be the one where we regain territory and push into India making as far as Ganges and Jumna rivers, possibly even further. The time frame for the second phase can be up to 6 months which can also be the minimum timeframe for the eastern campaign (Ghazwa-e-Hind).
So, in conclusion, this ‘breaking down’ of ties is the beginning of the ‘end game’ in South Asia. It is certainly being orchestrated by the Americans to justify aggressions against Pakistan. Our government, their allied parties, the opposition, the judiciary are directly or indirectly in on this plan and are singing to the tune taught by the White Man. The only question mark is the military leadership. Is the top brass in on it or are they sincerely trying to salvage the situation for Pakistan? It must be remembered that what I have stated is based on apparent and available information. Consequently, conclusions can be a very tricky business.
As far as the Enemy’s designs are concerned, I think I am close to the truth, same goes for our political forces and the judiciary. The Army is the only anomaly in the equation.
Either way, if the military leadership is sincere, then this is a positive sign, it means that the military has already developed a plan to deal with these impending scenarios. The testing of short range, tactical nuclear capable missile Hatf-IX certainly seems like a statement in this regard.
However, if the military leadership is in on the Enemy’s game, this is very good news, it means that there is a military takeover in the offing, and we can expect real Muslim, patriotic Pakistani soldiers to emerge from the dust and smoke to take the mantle of leadership and steer Pakistan to glory it richly deserves.
Continue to maintain that no power on Earth can destroy Pakistan because it was created by Almighty Allah. Though, Pakistanis may have to initially pay for their complacency.
So, here is to seeing you in Delhi while sitting on top of an Al-Khalid tank, looking at the Red Fort with the Pakistani flag flying over it.
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