Gwadaris strategically located between three increasingly important regions: the oil-rich Middle East, heavily populated Pakistan and the economically emerging and resource-laden region of Central Asia. China has acknowledged that Gwadar’s strategic value is no less than that of the Karakoram Highway, which helped cement the China-Pakistan nexus. Beijing is also interested in turning it into an energy-transport hub by building an oil pipeline from Gwadar into Chinese Xinjiang. The planned pipeline will carry crude oil sourced from Arab and African states. Such transport by pipeline will cut freight costs and also help insulate the Chinese imports from interdiction by hostile naval forces in case of any major war.
HUNDREDS OF TRIBES, WITH FLAGS TO COME….COURTESY OF THE PENTAGON’S KILLERS
by Robert D. Kaplan
This post by a fellow blogger was uploaded at the end of last month. But interestingly the views expressed by the editor have come so close to events in Pakistan, one is compelled to seriously evaluate the advice he has furnished to our leaders especially the incumbent president and the leader in waiting Mian Nawaz Sharif, who of late appears to have softened his stand on democracy and the biased US policy towards Pakistan. [Nayyar]
Every movement in history has a direction, a quantum, a modus operandi. According to the father of the philosophy of war Carl Von Clausewitz everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously and sometimes invisibly. The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements.
Right: Carl Philipp Gottfried von Clausewitz [Jul. 1, 1780 – Nov. 16, 1831] was a Prussian soldier and military theorist who stressed the moral and political aspects of war. His most notable work , Vom Kriege (On War) was unfinished at his death. It was Von Clausewitz, the father of the philosophy of war, who said that everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously. The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements.
The USA inherited a historical situation in the shape of 9/11. At this point in time it was not making history if we agree that 9/11 was the work of Al Qaeda for which so far the USA has failed to furnish any solid evidence. After 9/11 when the U.S. attacked Afghanistan, her leaders and key military commanders were making history. They had a certain plan in mind. The stated objectives of these plans were the elimination of al-Qaeda. The unstated objective was the de-nuclearisation of Pakistan.
This scribe has continuously held this position consistently in articles published in Nation from September 2001, all through 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and till 2009.
A May 2009 article, on Gwadar, by Robert D. Kaplan, Pakistan’s Fatal Shore, in The Atlantic, the writer Robert D. Kaplan references on Baloch separatist websites (see here), and provides a map of “Greater Balochistan” probably reflective of the thinking of the “Balkanise Pakistan” lobby that is increasingly coming out into the open.
The US strategic plan followed the following distinct phases:
1. An initial maneuver occupying Afghanistan in 2001.
2. Establishing and consolidating US military bases near the Afghan Pakistan border. Most prominent being the Khost, Jalalabad, Sharan and Kunar US bases. Some military bases like Dasht I Margo in Nimroz and three other bases in Kandahar, Badakhshan and Logar were so secret that their construction was not even advertised.
Even in case of sensitive areas the contracts were awarded to the US Government owned Shaw Inc and the CIA proxy operated Dyncorps Corporation. Patriotic Afghans trained in USSR were removed from Afghan Intelligence because they would not agree to be a party to USA’s dirty game in between 2001 and 2007.S imilarly many patriotic Afghan officers trained in USSR were removed from the Afghan military establishment.
3. Cultivating closeness to various tribes in ethnic groups on the Pakistan Afghan border by awarding them lucrative construction and logistic sub contracts.
4. Forcing the Pakistani military to act against the FATA tribes thus destabilising Pakistan’s north western area close to the strategic heartland of Peshawar-Islamabad-Lahore where Pakistan’s political and military nucleus is located.
5. Creating a situation where mysterious insurgencies would erupt in various parts of Pakistan including FATA, Swat and Balochistan.
6. Carrying forward urban terrorism into Punjab through various proxies.
Now it appears that the strategic plan is entering its final stage of launching a strategic coup de grace to Pakistan. These may be assessed as follows :–
- US military buildup in Afghanistan and launching of an offensive against Taliban with an aim of pushing them into Pakistan.
- Simultaneously pressurising the Pakistan Army into launching an operation in Waziristan. Thus Pakistan Army gets severely bogged down and hundreds of thousands of refugees enter Pakistan’s NWFP and Balochistan provinces. Infiltrators and fifth columnists being a heavy promiscuous mixture of this movement.
- Since 2001 the USA has spent a great fortune collecting information on Pakistan’s strategic nuclear assets. It appears that in 2009 it has sufficient data to launch a covert operation. (In this regard, the interview given by Pakistan’s former ISI Chief gave to Ahmed Quraishi, wherein he clearly affirmed how the ex president General Pervaiz Musharraf sold out Pakistan’s interests and under this deal, CIA was given extra ordinary access to Pakistan’s top intelligence matters).
- The covert nuclear operation could have a civilian and a military part. The civilian part may involve an attack on Pakistan’s non-military nuclear reactors like Chashma and KANUPP. The military covert operation could involve an attack on any of Pakistan’s strategic nuclear groups anywhere in Pakistan. Once this type of attack is done the USA with its NATO lackeys like Britain, France and Germany would go to the UN and maneuver an international resolution demanding denuclearization of Pakistan. The international opinion may be so strong that Pakistan’s government may capitulate.
- Once Pakistan is de-nuclearised, the USA would encourage Pakistan’s Balkanisation into a Baloch US satellite , a city state of MQM in Karachi, a Pakhtunistan badly bombed and in tatters and a Punjab stripped of nuclear potential , kicked and bullied by India. A Northern Area republic which will be a US lackey unless China decides to call the US bluff by occupying the Northern Area.What is the answer to this:–
- An immediate clean break with USA/NATO and closing all NATO/US supply lines to Afghanistan.– Mining and barbed wiring the Afghan Pakistan Border.– Allowing the FATA agencies to import goods for Afghanistan duty free and scrapping the old Afghan Transit Trade Accord thus economically boosting the FATA.– A military alliance with China with a Chinese Naval base at Gwadar. A rapprochement with Russia and offering the Russians free port facilities at Gwadar.– Creation of a maritime province in Gwadar and Lasbela districts insulating these areas from the Baloch Sardars on payroll of US intelligence.
– Creation of a Pashtun Province in the Pashtun districts of Balochistan with Quetta as its capital.
– Cancelling all mineral concessions to all European/Australian/American companies in Balochistan and grant all mineral concessions to Chinese companies.
Everything is not inevitable in history. The ablest navigators can defeat the worst sea storms. Pakistan needs strategic and political vision. It may be necessary to have a military government to do all this in case the civilians prove inept.
Robert David Kaplan is an American journalist, currently a Nattional Correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly and a writer for Stratfor. His writings have also been faetured in the Wasghington Post, The New York Times, the New Republic and the Wall Street Journl, among other newspapers and publcations. Foreign Policy magazine named Kaplan as one of the world’s “top 100 global thinkers.”
Related to this post you can watch a video by PakNationalists here
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